NFL Preseason Handicapping Basics

Betting preseason NFL games never fails to elicit an irreconcilable difference of opinion among sports betting enthusiasts. Some consider it a very poor wagering opportunity, while others maintain that there’s no better moneymaking opportunity in sports than pro football’s preseason. The truth is probably somewhere between the two extremes–NFL preseason betting must be approached with caution and discipline, but offers the potential to make a tidy profit before the regular season kicks off.

The opponent of preseason wagering would suggest that its a bad wagering opportunity by its very nature alone–simply stated, the games don’t count meaning that the motivation and focus of individual teams is always in question. It’s hard enough to identify teams that are in a desirable ’spot’ during the regular season, the often conflicting agendas of personnel evaluation, playbook testing, and injury prevention found in the preseason makes it impossible. All told, this uncertainty makes it very undesirable to get financially involved with preseason NFL games.

The proponent of preseason wagering would argue that this is the very reason that good opportunities frequently arise during preseason. First, additional value is frequently found with the underdog in preseason games by their very nature. To explain, in a hypothetical matchup between a Superbowl champion and an also-ran the “better” team by regular season standards would invariably be favored. However, by virtue of their success the “better” teams have not only more ‘marquee names’ to protect, but also valued guys in the trenches who could cause big problems if injured. Frequently, they’ll have more depth and thus fewer personnel evaluation decisions to deal with. They’ll have no need to “create a winning attitude”, nor will they usually have wholesale changes in team composition, offensive or defensive strategy, or coaching philosophies to deal with. In short, the “better” teams often go into preseason situations with little to accomplish other than to get the games over with and stay healthy.

NFL ‘doormats’, meanwhile, have a markedly different agenda to their more successful counterparts. They’ve often got heated competition for starting positions or key back up roles. They’ve often got new coaching staffs that players want to impress. Most significantly, they’re in great need of establishing a winning attitude. A win against an elite team in a ‘meaningless’ preseason game often has a much greater value to this type of team than to a playoff contender.

While some teams could care less about the result of preseason games, few want to enter the regular season having lost them all. In light of this fact, a successful preseason situation that has stood the test of time is to bet on teams that lost their first two exhibition games outright. This situation has produced a winning percentage right around 60%.

Perhaps nothing determines a team’s approach to the preseason more than the philosophy of the head coach. Some coaches simply hate to lose anytime they line ‘em up to play football, and as a result their teams are usually good preseason bets. Bill Parcells was famous for the preseason focus of his teams. Not surprisingly, many who worked with Parcells earlier in their careers are now carving out their own records of preseason success. This sort of dominance isn’t lost on the linesmaker and a coach like the Giants’ Tom Coughlin (a former Parcells assistant) will have his ATS success will definitely been factored into the pointspread. Still, a motivated team that wants to win is always worthy of consideration.

The Internet has become a very valuable weapon in the NFL preseason handicapper’s arsenal. Simply following the local media reports of NFL teams can often produce a wealth of ‘mission critical’ betting information. The combination of anxious beat writers, little in the way of ‘real’ news, and a less guarded approach by coaches to games that ‘don’t count’ can often reveal game strategies, playing time for key personnel, or even a team’s specific agenda for a particular game. Sometime coaches will come right out and say that evaluating a certain position, or working on a specific offensive scheme is their top priority for a game. It’s a great way to find not only good teams to bet on, but strong situations to go against teams that are focused on something other than outscoring their opponent.

The bottom line is that while the NFL preseason does offer some solid moneymaking opportunities, its not a ‘free cash grab’. It’s best viewed as an opportunity to grind out a small profit, but as always its essential to maintain the same degree of discipline in handicapping and money management as at any other time during the pro football season.

Ross Everett is a respected freelance writer who covers travel, casino gambling and sports handicapping. He is a staff handicapper for Anatta Sports where he is responsible for providing daily free sports picks. In his spare time he enjoys fine dining, fencing and deep sea diving. He lives in Las Vegas with four dogs and a pet coyote.